PIP success rates

If registered means claimed then (a) you can’t compare a rolling 6 month mean against a month to month figure (b)  the numbers are too small for a statistically useful result (c) apart from year end there doesn’t seem any obvious seasonality.

Thanks Gareth, It was only the bottom graph that puzzled me, it represents the success rate of claims and seems too cyclical but, as I said, my last stats lectures were over 20 years ago and maybe I am seeing something that isn’t really there (or after 30 years in Benefits I am just looking for conspiracies?)

I too find the bottom graph worrying in that the higher the peak, the deeper the trough that follows.
If the sample size is small, I would expect the figures to be more random, but there is a distinct pattern.