Migration Stats July - Dec. 23

Todays story ( with a very misleading headline, as a lot of the cases are still within the initial 3 months notice period) does have a few interesting, and surprising, figures within it.

On a very initial look, using the July - Sep figures, when the 3 months notice will have expired (and not allowing for extensions) seems to show (compared to the same 3 months in 22)

An increase in unclaimed cases from 14.5% to 18%.
A decrease in claims by deadline from 75% to 58%
A decrease in claims (completed) from 85% to 62%
An increase of ‘in progress for 0% to 20%: (although it would be surprising if there were still any 22 cases in progress now, 20% indicates a lot of extensions or issues)

From July to December figures

18% of singles unclaimed compared to 0.13% of couples. (Lots of couple cases in progress but if you assume that all in progress cases, for single and couple claims, go through, then we see claims of 99.87% for couples against 82% for singles)
78% of single claims had TP compared to 30% of couples.

I’ll do a deeper delve into the tables when I’ve got time but I’m trying to fit these initial results, with the Welsh numbers, into the Dangos migration in Wales webinar on Thursday which is approaching 300 registrations.

Gareth Morgan - 13 February 2024 01:35 PM

Todays story (with a very misleading headline, as a lot of the cases are still within the initial 3 months notice period) ....

Hi Gareth .. thanks for your feedback ...

I think the headline is accurate, although of course, and as you say, there are reasons why it might not reflect the whole picture. As the DWP says itself (and which, to be fair, we’ve included in our story) -

Households are given an initial period of three months within which to claim. They may also be sent one or more reminders. This means that an overall claim rate calculated over all months will underestimate the actual claim rate as it will not correctly account for people who are yet to claim ...

Here’s the story if others haven’t seen it as yet: https://www.rightsnet.org.uk/welfare-rights/news/item/just-a-quarter-of-legacy-benefit-claimants-who-were-sent-a-migration-notice-in-the-period-from-july-2022-to-december-2023-have-made-a-claim-for-universal-credit

Cheers ... Shawn

How is everyone doing with regard to numbers of queries received by advice services?

We have had MM since August 1st last year and yet the number of queries to our Helpline has been negligible. DWP refuses to say how many MNs have been issued in our area.

Something is either going very right, or very wrong - ?

we have had very few come to us in Lancashire.
I would like to think it is because it is going smoothly but the few we have have all gone wrong! totally missed TE!
but from also speaking to CA help to claim and the crazy complex cases they get I just dont think people are reaching out