UC business case

It looks (to me - I may be wrong!) like UC may be underperforming on employment outcomes.

This document, which minutes a discussion of this document, quotes Neil Couling as saying that if UC outperformed legacy by 4.5% then DWP would be on target to achieve predicted Business Case (BC) employment effects.

If we then look at table 4 in the recently published policy paper then we can see that DWP claim to achieve (on the basis on unpublished data) 3% after 3 months falling to 2% after 6 months.

I’d also note, looking at this document, that DWP seem to have planned to do various bits of anlaysis for other claimant groups (i.e. not just those which would have been on JSA in the legacy system) but, as far as I know, this analysis (if it was ever carried out) has not seen the light of day.

If correct then this hardly puts this debate to bed…

If I’m getting this wrong then please tell me!

The recently published UCPB papers are well worth a read: https://www.rightsnet.org.uk/forums/viewthread/17229/#86421