Absolutely. The British economy has been in decline since the late 19th century. Since the end of World War 2 it took several years for the British economy to recover. Since the war the cyclical nature of the economy has seen each period last about 15-20 years, notwithstanding shorter periods of 1980’s “boom and bust”.
The period from the late 1950’s to about 1973/4 was known as the long boom. From then the economy went into a downward cycle of slowdown and contraction lasting until about 1991/2. From then the economy entered a period of growth and expansion and it is looking very much like it is entering a protracted period of slowdown and contraction again which might not see an upturn until 2024/5.
As in previous slowdowns there are countries that defy the trends, newly emerging economies (West Germany and Japan during the long boom, the Pacific rim economies during the 1970’s/80’s and China/ India, possibly, now) and these countries can sustain growing employment – for a while.
However, the established economies will experience rising unemployment and higher prices at least until fiscal policy is able to bring a certain level of stability to markets and this takes more international co-ordination now than it ever did.
Apart from the economic causes of poverty there are also the social factors; poor housing, low-income households, inflation, poor educational achievement, poor parenting (whether from low educational achievement or alcohol/substance abuse) or a combination of any or all of these things.
I will always give credit where it is due and there are many positive achievements of this government, which have made a difference to many families’ lives. However, If Gordon Brown (or anyone else for that matter) thinks that they are going to “completely eliminate” child poverty (whatever that might mean), a laudable aim to be sure, rather than to reduce it or to ameliorate its effects, while going into an economic downturn, then he is seriously deluding himself and he should not overreach himself by playing to the conference gallery.
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