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EU Referendum and UK poverty

Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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New briefing from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation that pulls together existing evidence on work, housing, the economy and welfare in relation to the EU referendum.

Key points include:

* Leaving the EU could save the UK its net contribution of £9.9 billion which could be spent on poverty reduction.
* A devaluation of the pound following a leave vote could increase the cost of imported goods and services which would impact people who already live in poverty.
* The North East, Northern Ireland and the East Midlands would be hardest hit by any increased barriers to trade with the EU.
* Some of the most deprived parts of the UK such as Wales and Cornwall receive £2.1 billion of funding from the EU to support development

Section on possible impacts related to social security on p.8, including (my emphasis):

Much of the public debate around EU migration has focused on the access of EU migrants to UK welfare benefits. EU migrants make up a small proportion of the UK’s overall benefits caseload: approximately 2.5% of out-of-work benefits (like Jobseeker’s Allowance and Incapacity Benefit) and 7% of in-work benefits, namely tax credits).

We should acknowledge that for some voters the issue is less economic than that they consider ‘fair’.

The EU Referendum and UK Poverty

     
Billy Durrant
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Paul_Treloar_AgeUK - 10 June 2016 10:21 AM

* Leaving the EU could save the UK its net contribution of £9.9 billion which could be spent on poverty reduction.

Or it could be spent on bombing Iraq & Syria and cutting taxes for the rich.

I wonder which is more likely under Johnson, Gove, etc.?

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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Whoops.

In media interviews almost daily, Tory MP Andrea Leadsom calls for Britain to leave the EU to protect wages and raise living standards here. Then why can’t she offer a job for at least the national minimum wage?

She added that cutting EU immigration would also raise wages in Britain. But that’s hypocritical given that employers such as Leadsom herself don’t want to pay workers even the National Minimum Wage.

The MP is currently advertising for a job as a caseworker, for the measily sum of £170 a week. That works out to £4.85 an hour.

The Minimum Wage rate is £5.30 for those 18 – 20 years old, and £6.70 for 21 – 24 years of age. Leadsom gets away with it by calling the job an ‘apprentice’, which allows her to pay a lower legal minimum.

TORY MP WHO SAYS LEAVING EU WOULD PROTECT WAGES IS ADVERTISING JOB FOR LESS THAN MINIMUM WAGE

     
1964
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They really are shameless aren’t they?

     
MartinB
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One of the strengths of parliamentary democracy is the dual role of MP as politician and “advice/social worker”. This means that that on many occasions a MP goes happily through the “aye lobby” on a particular bit of welfare legislation, only…to later find their surgery is chock full of constituents who have been negatively impacted…..

Rather than advice the constituent, who is to blame…this then becomes “A Special Case” that should then be dealt with by “Discretion”  ie (outside the legislation)....... mysteriously discretion never gets written into the original law….......

     
Benny Fitzpatrick
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The leave campaign is headed by such paragons of honesty, altruism etc as IDS, Priti Patel, Gove and Johnson. Only an utter mooncalf would be foolish enough to believe a single utterance from this bunch! They are in it for their own selfish interests or their own petty xenophobic views. Nothing else!

leaving the EU would be a disaster for all but the tax-avoiding, democracy-despising elite.

     
stevenmcavoy
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Paul_Treloar_AgeUK - 10 June 2016 02:18 PM

Whoops.

In media interviews almost daily, Tory MP Andrea Leadsom calls for Britain to leave the EU to protect wages and raise living standards here. Then why can’t she offer a job for at least the national minimum wage?

She added that cutting EU immigration would also raise wages in Britain. But that’s hypocritical given that employers such as Leadsom herself don’t want to pay workers even the National Minimum Wage.

The MP is currently advertising for a job as a caseworker, for the measily sum of £170 a week. That works out to £4.85 an hour.

The Minimum Wage rate is £5.30 for those 18 – 20 years old, and £6.70 for 21 – 24 years of age. Leadsom gets away with it by calling the job an ‘apprentice’, which allows her to pay a lower legal minimum.

TORY MP WHO SAYS LEAVING EU WOULD PROTECT WAGES IS ADVERTISING JOB FOR LESS THAN MINIMUM WAGE

i wonder if this will end up going to someone that can afford to live on this with family support and ultimately end up with a full time paid post or election ticket with the party.

     
shawn
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Richard Machin - lecturer in social welfare law, policy and advice practice at Staffordshire University - writing in the latest Legal Action magazine:

Social security in the aftermath of the EU referendum: An overview of what might happen to social security benefits whether UK citizens vote to leave or stay in the EU

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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Nice one Shawn, thanks.

Don’t forget also that both David Cameron and Labour’s Tom Watson have said that the triple-lock protection on state pensions would be threatened. Scaring the oldies into voting remain it seems….

Reality Check: Would Brexit mean cuts to pensions, defence and the NHS?

     
ClairemHodgson
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sadly, a lot of people are going to vote against their own interests because they believe all the brexit rubbish, and don’t believe the law and facts are as we say they are (even if you put a case in front of them to prove your point…. )

     
1964
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Absolutely. Sadly it’s gone way past the point where any logical argument can hold sway.

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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shawn
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Garden Court Chambers’ ‘Free Movement’ blog has a series of 12 brexit-related briefings, commissioned by the Immigration Law Practitioners Association:

https://www.freemovement.org.uk/series/brexit-briefings-by-ilpa/

Includes one by Desmond Rutledge in relation to EU citizens’ access to benefits:

https://www.freemovement.org.uk/brexit-briefing-eu-citizens-access-to-benefits/

[21.06.16: Updated to fix link]

      [ Edited: 21 Jun 2016 at 10:28 am by shawn ]
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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Overview of, and number of linked articles about, potential effects on human rights here, from Rightsinfo.

But. If we Brexited, and particularly with the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party running the show, the direction of travel would be away from international organisations and agreements. Those organisations and agreements have been central to setting basic internationally recognised human rights standards, whether in employment, criminal justice, discrimination, children’s rights or refugee law. Make no mistake, the medium and long-term effects of Brexit on rights protections in the UK could be very significant indeed.

What Brexit Would Mean For Human Rights

And here’s a working link for the 12 briefings that Shawn posted in last post https://www.freemovement.org.uk/series/brexit-briefings-by-ilpa/

     
shawn
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Written before this morning’s result, but here’s a link to ILPA’s briefing on:

Impact of Brexit: What would happen if the UK left the EU?

(Written by Steve Peers from the University of Essex)

     
Billy Durrant
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Every cloud has a silver lining…at least we now have £350m p/w extra to spend on the NHS and public services. What’s that Nigel? That was a “mistake”. I see. Not a “lie”, an honest “mistake”. Well that’s alright then, we all make those from time to time.

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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shawn - 24 June 2016 08:58 AM

Written before this morning’s result, but here’s a link to ILPA’s briefing on:

Impact of Brexit: What would happen if the UK left the EU?

(Written by Steve Peers from the University of Essex)

Although David Cameron has said that he would immediately notify a Leave vote, some on the Leave side have suggested that they might delay a notification, or not make a notification at all, hoping that the EU would be willing to renegotiate the UK’s membership again.

Well that prediction has been blown out of the water by Cameron resigning this morning.

How sad.

     
shawn
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Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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shawn - 24 June 2016 09:26 AM

TUC response: Working people must not pay the price of leaving the EU

As the representatives of 6m working we people, we respect their decision.

Working we people? What about the tall people?

     
shawn
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House of Commons library briefing:

EU Referendum: the process of leaving the EU

... includes info on Article 50 ...

     
shawn
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Citizens Advice: Brexit - how it affects you

     
Mike Hughes
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As has been astutely observed elsewhere this morning it was “working people” who voted to leave in pursuit of an aspiration they’ll now find just as thwarted by other means. 

Sorry, I can’t bring myself to use that awful term as a point of principle.

     
Daphne
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From the European Commission -

The terms of the UK Settlement agreed at the European Council of 18-19 February 2016 - http://www.rightsnet.org.uk/welfare-rights/news/item/European-Union-leaders-agree-proposals-for-EU-migrant-benefit-restrictions - have ceased to exist.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-2328_en.htm

     
Charlie Kensington CAB
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Paul_Treloar_AgeUK - 24 June 2016 09:31 AM
shawn - 24 June 2016 09:26 AM

TUC response: Working people must not pay the price of leaving the EU

As the representatives of 6m working we people, we respect their decision.

Working we people? What about the tall people?

I suspect Paul’s response may be due to him not knowing whether to laugh or cry. I’m not feeling very funny at the moment.

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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Charlie Kensington CAB - 24 June 2016 12:48 PM

I suspect Paul’s response may be due to him not knowing whether to laugh or cry. I’m not feeling very funny at the moment.

You suspect correct Sir. Everyone here is walking around looking slightly dazed.

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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Article on legal and constitutional effects of the vote by Mark Elliott, Professor of Public Law at the University of Cambridge, a Fellow of St Catharine’s College, Cambridge, and Legal Adviser to the House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution.

Brexit: Legally and constitutionally, what now?

     
ClairemHodgson
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and now they’re talking about Steven Crabb throwing his hat in the ring to be Tory Leader.

and not one of them have a plan - not even the government of the day, who were the ones supposed to be planning for whatever the outcome was…..

the ignorance (not just of the actual facts now, but of historical facts) and racism being shown about is awful

and i’m sure lots of people who voted out expect that they will suddenly find no more conditionality, a sudden rush of available jobs they can do, a resurgence of shipbuilding/steel/mining (name your missing industry) etc….


Whilst i don’t normally like coalitions, i do think we probably need one at this moment - the only way to get an evenly divided country back together, probably…..

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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Unfortunately Claire, the Labour Party seem more intent on tearing themselves apart, with shadow ministers resigning quicker than anyone can keep up.

At least Osborne has rowed back from his threat of another emergency budget for now. What will happen in the medium to longer term really does seem to be anyone’s guess at the moment.

Perhaps the weirdest thing I have read is David Lamm,y, MP for Tottenham, who has written in the Guardian:

“It is also within parliament’s powers to call a second referendum, now that the dust has begun to settle and the reality of a post-Brexit nation is coming into view. We need a second referendum at the very least, on the basis of a plan that is yet to even be drawn up.”

Parliamentary fightback against Brexit on cards

     
shawn
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Boris Johnson in the Telegraph:

- Britain is part of Europe, and always will be
- British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down.
-  EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.
- there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe—and-alw/

     
Paul_Treloar_AgeUK
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This piece in the Economist is rather terrifying.

Despite arguments for patience from continental Anglophiles, including Angela Merkel, the insistence that Britain immediately invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, launching exit negotiations that can last no longer than two years, is hardening. Soon it may be a consensus. Britain could be thrust into talks under a lame-duck leader with no clear notion of what Brexit should look like or mandate to negotiate. All against a background of intensifying economic turmoil and increasingly ugly divides on Britain’s streets. The country is sailing into a storm. And no one is at the wheel.

Britain is sailing into a storm with no one at the wheel

     
ClairemHodgson
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1. labour needs to stop falling apart, idiots.  i can’t believe they’re all looking at their own individual positions.  Whatever one thinks of Corbyn and the tactics during the campaign (I saw a report that hq wouldn’t allow anyone to contest the rubbish being spouted about immigration, which has to be the daftest decision ever) this is not the time to fall apart at the seams.

2. a referendum has no legal effect - parliament makes the laws

3. but in any event, a new referendum will prove even more divisive; they should have done the obvious thing in the first place and put a minimum majority on it (i gather, in fact, that the petition everyone is now signing was in fact started a while ago, but really such an obvious thing to do)

3. until Art 50 Notice is given, there is nothing the EU can do anyway to force us to activate it.

I think the country is a rudderless ship and, whilst i dislike coalitions, i think this is possibly a time where we need one (but without UKIP… bad enough with the tory party, but certainly don’t need the far right).